Flávio Bolsonaro vs. Lula: How Brazil’s Electoral Map Is Taking Shape

Brazil’s electoral landscape remains hazy. Officially, presidential candidacies, ahead of the October elections, when voters will choose the President of the Republic, governors, senators, and federal and state deputies, must be finalized between July and August. Even so, the potential presidential contenders are already beginning to take shape.

The country is facing a complex situation, both for the progressive camp and for the far right. On one side, the left is relying exclusively on a new candidacy by Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers’ Party (PT), who, if re-elected, would serve his fourth term at the age of 80.

There is no successor: no one else in the race with Lula’s political strength. This has been pointed out by political scientists and social movements as a structural problem for the Brazilian left and something deeply concerning. Still, the current president has already stated that he will run, saying he feels strong and fit despite his advanced age.

The right-wing camp, on the other hand, is more fragmented. Several less prominent figures intend to compete for the support of “moderate” neoliberals, but none has stood out so far in voting intention polls. Within the Bolsonaro-aligned far right, which has been losing strength since Jair Bolsonaro’s arrest in November 2025 for attempted coup d’état (though it still represents the voting power of a large segment of the population), the leading contender is Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son.

Who is Flávio Bolsonaro?

Flávio began his political career as a state deputy in 2002, at the age of 21, and was re-elected in 2006, 2010, and, for the last time, in 2014. In the 2018 elections, Flávio ran for the Senate representing Rio de Janeiro, then affiliated with the Social Liberal Party (PSL), and was elected.

In 2018, a report by Brazil’s Council for Financial Activities Control (Coaf) revealed unusual transactions totaling R$1.2 million (195.000€) in the account of Fabrício Queiroz, a former aide to then–state deputy Flávio Bolsonaro, during the period in which “number one,” as he is called by his father, held a seat in the Rio de Janeiro State Legislative Assembly (Alerj).

Between 2007 and 2018, according to prosecutors, the money was laundered through investments in a chocolate shop located in a shopping mall in Rio de Janeiro, which has since been the target of search-and-seizure operations. Another alleged money-laundering method, according to the investigation, involved the purchase of real estate using cash withdrawn directly at bank tellers by Queiroz. Part of these funds was also used to cover the lawmaker’s personal expenses, such as his daughter’s school tuition.

In 2020, the then Attorney General of Justice of Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Gussem, charged Flávio Bolsonaro and 16 others, including Fabrício Queiroz, before the Rio de Janeiro Court of Justice with crimes including criminal organization, money laundering, embezzlement, and misappropriation. In the indictment, Flávio was identified as the leader of the criminal organization, and Queiroz as the operator of the embezzlement scheme. At the time, prosecutors stated that the senator had used at least R$2.7 million (435.000€) in cash in the scheme.

After several legal back-and-forths, the case is currently under seal. In 2021, the senator purchased a mansion worth R$6 million (970.000€) in Lago Sul, an upscale neighborhood in Brasília, which raised suspicions of illicit activities, because at the time, Flávio’s monthly salary as a senator was just R$44,000 (7.000€).

During his tenure as a state deputy at Alerj, Flávio granted a “motion of commendation” in 2003 to militiaman Adriano Nóbrega and seven other police officers. A few days later, the officers were arrested in flagrante for the murder of a parking attendant. During that period, Flávio visited them in prison.

Killed in a shootout in 2020, the former BOPE (Batalhão de Operações Policiais Especiais) captain Nóbrega had been expelled from the Military Police in 2014 for involvement in illegal gambling activities. The Battalion of Special Police Operations, is the tactical police unit of the Military Police of Rio de Janeiro State in Brazil that is well known for the using of excessive force, extrajudicial killings, human rights violation and corruption. Nóbrega later teamed up with two other former police officers to form what became known as the “Office of Crime,” a kind of consortium of hired killers. Flávio also employed Nóbrega’s mother and ex-wife in his office at Alerj.

In December 2025, Flávio Bolsonaro stated that he was his father’s chosen candidate to run for president in 2026. The announcement came as a surprise and caused discomfort among leaders of his party, the Liberal Party (PL), raising doubts about whether the candidacy would move forward.

In January, Flávio began an international tour in search of support from the global right alongside his brother Eduardo Bolsonaro. They traveled to Israel, where they met with Benjamin Netanyahu and former Austrian prime minister Sebastian Kurz. They also met with Albanian prime minister Edi Rama and Argentine ambassador Axel Wahnish. In Dubai, the brothers met with Senator Dr. Ali Rashid Al Nuaimi to discuss “gender ideology” and published photos with at least six members of the European Parliament, including Spaniards Hermann Tertsch and Jorge Buxadé of the Vox party, Portugal’s Pedro Frazão, vice president of Chega, and Poland’s Dominik Tarczyński. After the meeting, Tarczyński posted a statement supporting Flávio’s election in 2026. In Bahrain, they met with Prime Minister and Crown Prince Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, Prince Sheikh Khalid bin Hamad Al Khalifa, and parliamentarian Hassan Ibrahim Hassan.

Flávio Bolsonaro’s rapprochement with Eduardo’s international political networks marks a turning point in the senator’s political trajectory. He had not taken part in the main parliamentary delegations led by Eduardo since 2024, which sought to denounce the alleged existence of a “dictatorship” in Brazil and to call for sanctions against the country.

The two are also expected to travel to Italy and Hungary. The final stop of the tour would be the United States, for a meeting with Trump, Milei, and other far-right leaders.

Another figure appearing in voting intention polls is Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle. Although she has not made any public declaration of candidacy, the president of PL Mulher (the party's women's chapter) is building her political career and will likely run for the Senate in 2026. She is someone to watch. An evangelical Christian, very radical in her discourses and charismatic figure among Bolsonaro's supporters, she has been recognized as her husband's caregiver and spokesperson. She and Jair's sons (who are not her own) have been engaged in constant political battles behind the scenes.

The latest voting intention polls show Lula ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro, though by a narrow margin. In some scenarios, the two appear statistically tied.