How a Trump–Lula Rapprochement Shook Brazil’s Far Right

Brazilian politics has been going through intense turmoil and dramatic plot twists. The conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro on September 11 — sentencing him to 27 years and 3 months in prison — for armed criminal conspiracy; attempted violent overthrow of the democratic rule of law; coup d’état; aggravated damage through violence and serious threats; and the deterioration of protected heritage sites has poured cold water on Brazil’s far right, which has been struggling to regroup ahead of the 2026 presidential elections.

In recent days, however, the situation has worsened even further for Bolsonaro’s supporters due to an unexpected rapprochement between Donald Trump and Brazil’s current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Lula, a center-left leader, has long been vilified by the international far right, which accuses him of influencing Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court to persecute the Bolsonaro family. Yet, on September 23, Trump surprised many by using part of his speech at the UN General Assembly to say he had “excellent chemistry” with Lula after a brief encounter in the event’s corridors — adding that the two would meet soon.

That brief exchange later evolved into a video call between the two on October 6. According to sources within the Brazilian government, the videoconference was cordial and relaxed, signaling a positive outlook for dialogue between Brazil and the United States.

Curiously, although the main topics discussed were Trump’s 40% tariff on Brazilian goods and sanctions against Supreme Court justices, neither Jair Bolsonaro nor Justice Alexandre de Moraes were mentioned during the conversation.
This new openness undermines what has been the Bolsonaro family’s main political strategy — and the efforts of federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro, who has spent months in the United States lobbying Trump to intervene in his father’s conviction. The move has deepened divisions among Bolsonaro’s far-right base.
Some within the camp, especially business leaders, are discontent with Trump’s tariffs on Brazil and with how Lula has managed to turn the situation to his advantage — boosting his popularity and approval ratings by positioning himself as a defender of national sovereignty.

Eduardo Bolsonaro’s attempt to stir up far-right nationalism has backfired, alienating part of his own movement. In Telegram groups and online forums, the far right is now split between “Eduardistas” and those who believe it’s time for a new leader to emerge.
The current favorite is São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, a member of the Republicans Party, which is affiliated with the Universal Church of the Kingdom of God. Tarcísio celebrated Trump’s tariffs on Brazil and was even photographed wearing a MAGA cap. He has also pledged to pardon former President Jair Bolsonaro if elected.
Adding further intrigue, there are also reports suggesting possible ties between Tarcísio and the PCC, one of Brazil’s largest organized crime syndicates.
For now, however, nothing is certain. The next chapters of this political saga remain to be seen.

Redacción: Ulli Jentsch