Territorial gains of the MEGA movement

In our last newsletter, we asked the rhetorical question of when the ‘cordon sanitaire’ at the European level would come to an end. As with other current debates, from the firewall to the universality of human rights, these democratic cornerstones are crumbling slowly but surely. In the still young new year, the ECR, the European Conservatives and Reformists Group in the European Parliament, had its member Tobias Bocheński (PiS, Poland) say in the EU Parliament that a ‘cordon sanitaire’ is “not a democratic institution,” but rather an undemocratic instrument used particularly by the left and the communists.

Similar signals are coming from France. These days, the leader of the Rassemblement National (RN), Marine Le Pen, must once again face allegations of embezzlement of EU funds for the former EP group ‘Identity & Democracy’ in an appeal hearing (we reported on the allegations here). The outcome is likely to determine whether Le Pen or her designated successor, Jordan Bardella, will run in the 2027 presidential election.

At the moment, poll results show that both can expect very good results. Against this backdrop, according to a recent poll for Le Monde, 71 percent of conservative supporters are in favor of alliances with the RN. The local elections, which will take place in March 2026, could be the first opportunity for the two camps to join forces, as 66 percent of conservatives agree to joint lists in the second round of voting. “France's firewall is falling,” headlines Berlin's Tagesspiegel.

Is the RN, which has been particularly critical of Trump up to now, also moving closer to the MAGA movement? At least, French and US media ran headlines such as “Jordan Bardella et Donald Trump: même combat” and “Will bromance bloom between Trump and Jordan Bardella?”. Bardella and Le Pen already made a media splash in December when they visited the US ambassador to Paris, Charles Kushner, together. In February 2025, Bardella left the CPAC in Washington DC at short notice after Steve Bannon greeted him with an outstretched arm.

Redaction: Ulli Jentsch